Global hotel transactions rose 29% in Q2, but regional results diverge, financing costs went up in September and U.S. hotel lending has slowed from its Q1 peak. Credit stress is visible in U.S. CMBS, but buyers do not yet see a wave of forced sales.
Hotel deal activity kept recovering through the first half of 2026. JLL reported that global hotel transactions rose 29% year over year in the second quarter. In September, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve both raised rates, and U.S. hotel lending growth has slowed since the first quarter. On the buyer side, 68% of asset managers in the Hospitality Asset Managers Association (HAMA) Fall 2026 survey said they were pursuing acquisitions, while 9.7% expected to hand keys back to a lender or enter a forced sale. For hotel owners, general managers, directors of sales and marketing (DOSMs) and revenue managers, the question is who can still finance a purchase at current rates, and what a new owner will change.
Table of Contents
1. Transactions are recovering unevenly
The 2025 recovery was partial. JLL reported that global direct hotel investment in 2025 was 22% above its 2023 low. Volumes rose 27% in the Americas and 4% in EMEA, and fell 20% in Asia Pacific. Hotels made up about 8% of global commercial real estate investment volume.
In 2026, the latest global reading is Q2. JLL’s Global Real Estate Perspective (3 August 2026) reported a 29% year-over-year rise in global hotel transaction activity. It also said Europe led RevPAR growth so far this year, followed by Asia Pacific. Growth was positive but more moderate in the Americas and softer in the Middle East. Q3 global data had not been published at the time of writing.
Regional data show the same split. CBRE reported $8.0 billion of hotel investment in Asia Pacific in H1 2026, up 21% year over year. In Germany, hotel investment fell 33% year over year to €1.10 billion in the first nine months, even though the number of transactions was higher and smaller and mid-sized deals made up a larger share.
On the buying side, HAMA’s survey results, released on 13 October, give a read on intent. Of 72 respondents, 49 (68.1%) said they were actively pursuing acquisitions. Seven (9.7%) expected a key handback or forced sale, and three had already done so since the spring survey. The survey covers about one-third of HAMA’s membership and says nothing about listed assets or completed deals, and it offers no earlier acquisition figure to compare against. For the survey’s refinancing and renovation results, see our RevPAR 2027 analysis.
2. Financing costs moved higher in September
On 10 September, the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, effective 16 September. The deposit facility rate is now 2.50% and the main refinancing rate 2.65%. On 16 September, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023.
These moves raise the reference cost of new and floating-rate debt, even where lenders remain active. They also make refinancing more sensitive to cash flow, capital expenditure needs and remaining loan term. Our financing-costs analysis covers what this means for hotel projects.
3. Lending is active, but U.S. momentum has slowed
In the United States, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that hotel loan originations rose 85% year over year in dollar volume in Q1 2026, within a 52% rise across commercial and multifamily lending. The Q2 release shows a slower pace: hotel originations were up 19% year over year and down 36% from Q1, against a 16% annual rise overall. These figures cover mortgage-banker originations only and say nothing about pricing, leverage or credit quality.
In EMEA, JLL reported in February 2026 that 80% of lenders planned to increase originations, with competition expected to compress margins and loosen terms and covenants. That is a forward-looking survey for one region and does not describe U.S. conditions. Where banks do lend, terms can still be tight; see our analysis of hotel construction lending.
4. Credit stress: two measures, two readings
Trepp reported that its U.S. CMBS lodging delinquency rate rose 34 basis points to 6.18% in September 2026, while the overall CMBS rate rose to 8.02%. Trepp attributed much of the overall rise to five large newly delinquent loans, and did not describe it as broad deterioration. Fitch reported a lower U.S. CMBS hotel delinquency rate of 3.36% for September. The gap likely reflects differences in loan universe, delinquency definitions and the treatment of matured or specially serviced loans, so the two series should be read separately.
Neither is a forced-sale rate, and neither covers the global hotel debt market. They show measurable stress in parts of the U.S. securitised market, while HAMA’s respondents expect few handbacks.
5. What this means for operators
- Buyer competition will be uneven. JLL’s 10 February 2026 outlook expects transactions above $250 million to increase significantly in 2026, with luxury resorts, trophy assets and high-quality assets in prime locations drawing the most interest. Other hotels may face a thinner buyer pool and different renovation expectations.
- Budgets need asset-level assumptions. With JLL describing widening regional performance gaps in 2026, a single portfolio-level RevPAR assumption is a weak basis for individual-hotel planning or debt-cover tests. See our GOP vs RevPAR analysis.
6. What to watch next
- Transaction breadth: whether Q3 global data confirm the Q2 increase, and whether growth reaches beyond large, prime and luxury deals.
- U.S. origination momentum: whether hotel lending recovers from Q2’s quarterly drop as rates rise.
- Refinancing outcomes: whether maturing loans end in refinancing, extension, sale or special servicing, and whether HAMA’s next survey moves from the current 9.7% expecting handbacks or forced sales.
- U.S. CMBS credit: whether Trepp’s lodging rate moves materially from 6.18% and Fitch’s from 3.36%.
- Policy path: the FOMC meets on 27–28 October and the ECB on 28–29 October.
Deals are recovering, lenders are lending and buyers say they are looking. Money now costs more, U.S. hotel lending has cooled since Q1, and distress shows up in part of the U.S. CMBS market but not yet in what asset managers expect.
Data Source
- HAMA, Fall 2026 Industry Outlook Survey, 18 September 2026
- JLL, Global Real Estate Perspective, 3 August 2026
- JLL, 2026 Global Hotel Investment Outlook, 10 February 2026
- CBRE, Asia Pacific H1 2026 and Germany 9M 2026 hotel investment releases
- MBA, Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations, Q1 (7 May 2026): https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/05/07/commercial-multifamily-borrowing-increased-52-percent-in-the-first-quarter-of-2026 and Q2 (August 2026). [add Q2 link]
- Trepp, CMBS delinquency report, September 2026
- Fitch Ratings, U.S. CMBS delinquency, September 2026
- European Central Bank, monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, 16 September 2026
















