The absence of recession would not protect hotel cash flow from weaker pricing growth. HAMA respondents’ expectations and external forecasts point toward a year in which positive RevPAR may provide less support for operating margins and debt cover.
The hotel RevPAR forecast 2027 presents a more awkward budgeting problem than a straightforward downturn: slower revenue growth without an accompanying recession. In HAMA’s fall survey, 65% of respondents expect portfolio RevPAR growth of at least 4% in 2026, but only 36% expect that pace in 2027; 85% do not foresee a US recession. For GMs, DOSMs and revenue managers, the commercial question is how much of next year’s revenue growth will survive the cost of generating and servicing it.
Table of Contents
1. HAMA respondents are lowering the growth assumption, not calling a contraction
HAMA’s results describe a substantial redistribution of expectations. Of 72 respondents, 47 forecast RevPAR growth of at least 4% in 2026, compared with 26 for 2027. The share expecting growth of 1–3% rises from 25% to 61%. Separately, 61 respondents do not expect the US economy to enter recession in 2027.
HAMA portfolio RevPAR expectations: 2026 versus 2027
| Expected annual RevPAR change | 2026 forecast | 2027 expectation |
| Flat | 6.94% — 5 respondents | 2.78% — 2 respondents |
| Increase of 1–3% | 25.00% — 18 respondents | 61.11% — 44 respondents |
| Increase of 4–6% | 47.22% — 34 respondents | 34.72% — 25 respondents |
| Increase of 7% or more | 18.06% — 13 respondents | 1.39% — 1 respondent |
Source: HAMA Fall 2026 Industry Outlook Survey, questions 2 and 16; 72 responses to each. The 2026 question also records two respondents expecting a decline. The 2027 question does not offer an equivalent option.
The survey has 72 responses, and the published results do not describe the respondent profile.
That questionnaire difference matters. Seventy of 72 respondents selected a growth category for 2027, but the question did not offer an explicit decline option. The result is therefore not equivalent to a survey in which respondents could choose contraction. The published results show no weighting by hotels, rooms or portfolio revenue. The decline from 65% to 36% measures the share of respondents selecting higher-growth bands—not a fall in the industry’s aggregate growth rate.
The defensible conclusion is narrower, but commercially useful: expectations are concentrating around modest expansion. The published tables do not establish why individual respondents selected lower-growth expectations for 2027, or whether those rejecting recession are the same respondents forecasting slower growth.
2. External forecasts support the slowdown—but disagree about its starting point
CoStar/STR and Tourism Economics forecast US RevPAR growth of 4.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. CBRE’s midyear outlook projects 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. Their agreement on 2027 is notable; their disagreement over 2026 is equally relevant. The same next-year forecast implies a sharp deceleration from CoStar’s starting point and a much smaller one from CBRE’s.
Neither forecast validates HAMA’s percentages directly. A national hotel-market forecast and a distribution of respondents’ portfolio expectations measure different things. Nevertheless, both research providers place 2027 growth within the 1–3% band selected by HAMA’s largest respondent group.
The full-year 2025 baseline also changes the interpretation. US RevPAR fell 0.3% to $100.02, as occupancy declined 1.2% to 62.3% and ADR increased 0.9%. Some of 2026’s expected expansion therefore follows a weak comparison rather than an uninterrupted acceleration.
CoStar’s August forecast explicitly combines slower hotel growth with a stronger economy: it projects US GDP growth accelerating from 2.2% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027. Its hotel assumptions include ADR growth slowing from 3.1% to 1.6% and room-demand growth easing from 1.7% to 1.1%.
That is the clearest external support for the survey’s apparent paradox. Hotel growth can moderate as exceptional comparisons disappear and pricing gains ease, even in a forecast that has the broader economy expanding faster.
3. Event revenue is a weaker foundation for recurring earnings
CoStar identifies the World Cup and US semiquincentennial comparisons in June and July as constraints on 2027 rate growth. Its forecast puts annual ADR growth at 1.6%; excluding those two months, the projected increase is 2.1%.
For underwriting, the distinction is between revenue earned and revenue repeatable. A hotel’s 2026 event premium is a genuine contribution to that year’s cash flow. It does not, by itself, establish the rate base available for the same dates in 2027.
The annual RevPAR assumption can obscure that difference. A property could record lower event-month revenue while improving on ordinary trading dates. Conversely, a seemingly modest annual growth target could require demanding gains outside the exceptional periods.
CBRE places greater emphasis on business transient and convention-linked group recovery as support for US performance, and expects convention-linked momentum to continue into 2027. Its outlook therefore supplies a different potential source of recurring demand from the event premiums emphasized by CoStar. These are forecasts of demand support, not proof that any particular hotel will replace its exceptional revenue.
The relevant evidence in property budgets is consequently more specific than the recession call: repeat group production, negotiated-account performance and the rate achievable on non-event dates.
4. Positive RevPAR leaves the margin question unanswered
Demand ranks first among HAMA respondents’ concerns, selected by 55.56%. Wage increases, at 44.44%, and labor availability, at 38.89%, complete the top three. These are reported concerns, not a quantified forecast of expense inflation.
The budget responses point the same way, though modestly: 41 respondents expect more than half their hotels to exceed budgeted RevPAR in 2026; 37 expect that for gross operating profit. The gap is small and the published data do not establish the cause. Those are respondents’ forecasts for their own portfolios, not percentages of all surveyed hotels.
CBRE’s European midyear outlook provides a separate operating assessment. It reports that labor costs across several major European markets are rising faster than revenue, with utilities and brand and operator fees adding pressure to GOP margins.
The underwriting consequence follows from the arithmetic rather than from a recession forecast. If operating expenses grow faster than total operating revenue, operating profit can fall while RevPAR remains positive. If additional occupancy carries higher acquisition, housekeeping or other servicing costs, the same RevPAR increase can produce a different profit contribution from one driven principally by rate.
A 2% RevPAR assumption therefore cannot stand in for a 2% earnings assumption. The room-revenue bridge, other departmental revenues and the expense forecast remain separate parts of the valuation.
5. The global comparison argues against a universal growth haircut
The US evidence does not describe a single worldwide hotel cycle. CoStar and Tourism Economics’ May international forecast covers 59 selected markets, rather than the entire global hotel stock. Within that coverage, its 31 European markets were forecast to generate RevPAR growth of 1.4% in 2026 and 0.2% in 2027; its 16 Asia-Pacific markets were forecast at 4.4% and 2.2%.
These figures are a dated comparison, not an October consensus. The forecast assumed resolution of the Iran conflict by the end of summer 2026. Its projections remain conditional on that assumption and cannot be presented as evidence that the assumed resolution occurred.
Even within that vintage, the commercial mechanisms differ. For the European aggregate, CoStar projected a small ADR decline in 2027 alongside modest occupancy growth. For Asia-Pacific, it described revisions as market-specific rather than evidence of a broad regional slowdown. Its Middle Eastern outlook involved recovery from disrupted demand, with supply growth remaining an additional constraint in Saudi markets.
CBRE’s European midyear assessment offers a more recent operating checkpoint: regional RevPAR was up 4.5% through June 2026, ahead of its initial full-year expectations, but it anticipated more moderate momentum after the summer and into early 2027. It also warned that regional averages were becoming less representative of individual markets.
For an international portfolio, applying the US slowdown mechanically would therefore introduce another forecasting error. A difficult event comparison, weak corporate pricing, new-room competition and recovery from disrupted air access can produce different revenue paths. Their implications for costs and confidence in stabilized earnings also differ.
6. Debt cover depends on cash flow, not the absence of recession
HAMA’s financing answers indicate uneven refinancing exposure. Forty-eight respondents—66.67%—say less than a quarter of their portfolio requires refinancing within nine to twelve months. Fifteen report exposure of at least a quarter, while nine select “not applicable.” Seven respondents expect at least one hotel to be handed back to a lender or enter a forced sale.
Those results neither quantify the volume of debt maturing nor establish the availability or price of replacement financing. The survey identifies exposure and anticipated distress; it does not provide loan-level evidence.
The distinction matters when slower growth enters an acquisition or refinancing model. Holding the debt-service requirement constant, weaker cash flow reduces coverage. Holding the capitalization rate constant, a lower stabilized net operating income reduces the income-based valuation. Neither outcome requires a recession—or a new increase in borrowing costs.
The same separation is necessary for improvement plans. HAMA reports that 87.5% of respondents are planning or undertaking renovations at one or more properties, while 51.39% are contemplating or have made a brand or management change. Those answers establish the prevalence of reported activity and intentions, but not completed expenditure, incremental earnings or investment returns.
Any forecast recovery attributable to refurbishment, rebranding or an operator change therefore remains distinct from market growth. Otherwise, a model risks counting the same revenue improvement twice: once through the market assumption and again through the asset plan.
7. The next test is the quality of growth
Three developments will determine whether the slower-growth thesis remains commercially benign.
First is pricing outside exceptional dates. CoStar’s 2027 outlook depends on continued rate growth despite difficult summer comparisons. Results and booking pace on ordinary dates will help distinguish an event-related slowdown from broader pricing weakness.
Second is the durability of business and group demand. CBRE expects that recovery to support 2027, while CoStar’s August assessment describes shorter group booking lead times in upper-end segments. A thinner forward booking window complicates the interpretation of pace: less business on the books is not automatically equivalent to less eventual demand.
Third is the conversion of revenue into cash flow. HAMA’s cost concerns and CBRE’s European margin assessment identify the exposure, but neither supplies a universal expense-growth rate for 2027. Property-level payroll commitments, insurance renewals, utilities, distribution costs and renovation disruption will determine how far positive RevPAR supports earnings.
On the available evidence, recession avoidance is compatible with continued hotel demand growth; it does not establish the earnings growth required by a purchase price, refinancing or renovation plan. The vulnerability is a base case that treats modest RevPAR expansion as sufficient evidence of improving cash flow.
Data Source
- Hospitality Asset Managers Association, Fall 2026 Industry Outlook Survey results, October 13, 2026. HAMA’s public release accompanies the supplied survey dated September 18; the PDF contains 72 complete responses, but does not describe the respondent profile or show weighting by hotels, rooms or portfolio revenue.
- CoStar, U.S. hotels report first full-year occupancy, RevPAR declines since 2020, January 20, 2026. This release reports US hotel occupancy, ADR and RevPAR for the full calendar year 2025.
- CoStar/STR and Tourism Economics, U.S. Hotel Forecast Assumptions – Q3 2026, August 6, 2026. This publication presents national US forecasts for 2026 and 2027, including rate, demand, supply and macroeconomic assumptions.
- CBRE, U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review 2026 — Hotels, midyear 2026. This national US outlook provides an independent 2026–27 forecast and segment commentary; the page does not display a precise publication date.
- CoStar/STR and Tourism Economics, Global Hotel Market Forecast Assumptions – Q2 2026, May 29, 2026. The forecast covers 59 selected markets across Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific, including aggregates for 31 European and 16 Asia-Pacific markets.
- CBRE, European Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review 2026 — Hotels, midyear 2026. This European assessment incorporates performance through June 2026 and discusses subsequent revenue and operating-margin pressures; the page does not display a precise publication date.
